SPX's Déjà Vu: Pattern Repetition Points to Potential High Retest

Market Summary 

The S&P 500 is displaying remarkably similar trading patterns over consecutive weeks, with both periods featuring headline-driven gap downs followed by Failed Breakdown recoveries. Last week's Deep Seek AI-related 120-point drop from 6120 and this week's 75-point "Trade War" decline from 6066 both led to predictable recovery patterns, with gap fills occurring almost precisely at projected levels.

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The market's consistent response to negative headlines – selling off sharply before staging systematic recoveries – demonstrates the continued effectiveness of the Failed Breakdown pattern. Both weeks saw gaps filled (to 6115-20 last week and 6066 this week) following similar technical sequences, suggesting strong underlying support for the index.

Pattern Analysis

• Week 1 Move:

  • Gap down from 6120s

  • Recovery from 5997

  • Gap fill to 6115-20

• Week 2 Move:

  • Gap down to 5940

  • Recovery from 5949

  • Gap fill to 6066

Technical Framework

1. Key Levels

   • Support: 6004-08

   • Resistance: 6066

   • Gap zones: 6056-66

2. Trading Triggers

   • Failed Breakdowns at weekly lows

   • Gap fill targets

   • Consolidation zones

Looking Ahead

• Monitor gap fill reactions

• Track Failed Breakdown patterns

• Watch headline response patterns

Following technical developments for potential high retest setup.