SPX in Time Loop Ahead of CPI: Three-Week Pattern Faces Key Test

Market Summary 

The S&P 500 has displayed an almost mechanical pattern over the past three weeks: Sunday gap-downs (triggered by Deepseek AI, then tariffs) followed by Failed Breakdown recoveries, mid-week rallies to fill gaps, and Friday sell-offs. This predictable cycle has kept the index largely range-bound between 6020 and 6125, with 6070 acting as a magnetic level.

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Today's session continued the established pattern, pushing to 6093 and higher, demonstrating the market's default "grind up" mode in the absence of tariff-related headlines. However, tomorrow's CPI report threatens to disrupt this three-week rhythm, potentially forcing a break from the well-worn range.

Technical Framework

• Range Support: 6016-20

• Range Resistance: 6125-30

• Key Pivot: 6066-70

Pattern Analysis

1. Weekly Cycle

   • Sunday: Gap down

   • Monday: Failed Breakdown

   • Mid-week: Gap fill

   • Friday: Sell-off

2. Key Levels

   • First Gateway: 6066-70

   • Secondary Target: 6093

   • Range Top: 6129

Looking Ahead

• CPI impact on range

• Monitor Failed Breakdown patterns

• Watch for range break signals

Here are Top news to economic news for February 12, 2024:

1. U.S. Economic Calendar - MarketWatch - This page provides a detailed schedule of major U.S. economic reports and Fed speakers for February 12, 2024, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

2. Markets News, Feb. 12, 2024: Stock Rally Loses … - This article covers various market news and events on February 12, 2024, such as Coca-Cola's earnings report, Monday.com's sales forecast, and Diamondback Energy's acquisition of Endeavor Energy Partners.

3. The Economic Times: February 2024 News - Business News, … - The Economic Times archives for February 2024 can be accessed through this link, where you can find news related to economic events and business developments on February 12, 2024.

4. News Release - Bureau of Economic Analysis - This news release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis provides information on the advance estimate of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter and year 2024.

5. Financial Post - The Financial Post's news archive for February 12, 2024, may contain economic news and articles related to market trends and financial developments on that date.