Is SPX Ready To Make/Sustain All Time Highs?

SPX Continues Institutional Accumulation Trend

Author

Market Maverick
February 15, 2025

Market Recap: SPX Continues Institutional Accumulation Trend

This week has followed the exact same pattern as the last two weeks, right down to the timing of trade setups. As readers know, my primary strategy revolves around one setup: The Failed Breakdown. This pattern signals institutional accumulation and allows us to follow major market players.

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For the last three weeks, we have seen massive institutional buying right after the Sunday futures open. Each time, futures gap down on bearish weekend headlines, sell off sharply, undercut a key low from the prior week, trap shorts, and then rally. This week followed the same script, with 6020 acting as the key level. I wrote last Friday: "For Monday, bulls will want to hold 6016-20. This would allow ES to work back up to range resistance, starting with 6066-70, then 6093, then onto 6129." Futures hit 6016-20, then rallied to 6129, following the exact trade setup from a week earlier.

Although it was not a straight move up, ES built a large consolidation/bull flag with support at 6020 and resistance near 6125. By Wednesday, ES had coiled around 6090, setting up for a breakout. I wrote at 4PM Wednesday: "6020 to 6125 is a large consolidation/bull flag. My general lean is we can work up to range resistance. This means 6098, 6104, then 6125. Above there, we can work to the higher targets in the bull case: 6139, 6160-65, then 6184." On Thursday, ES hit 6125, and last night, we attempted the breakout.

Can SPX Push to and Sustain All-Time Highs?

The key for bulls now is to defend the breakout. I wrote yesterday: "Bulls want to hold 6120-23, 6098 (if this fails, it needs to recover fast) on any dips tomorrow to defend today's breakout." ES spent all day basing above 6120-23, breaking its cycle of Friday collapses. However, the question remains: Can it push into all-time highs and sustain them?

In today’s issue, I’ll do a deep dive into three major Failed Breakdowns we saw this week. Like last week, we had at least one per day, and on several occasions, two. These gave us great opportunities to add to existing positions. Finally, I’ll discuss the actionable trade plan for Monday and Tuesday (Monday is a holiday with a half-day futures session).

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.